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    April 13

    March Sales Prediction

    Just for fun (and because I think the analysts are way off) let's predict sales numbers for March.  I pinned the Xbox 360 Christmas numbers quite well (mine was 1.5-1.75 actually was 1.61) so who knows, I might get some of these right as well.
     
    Michael Pachter, a noted analyst has made his predictions on the March NPD sales numbers, I'll list mine below in () to the right of his, followed by the +/- difference between our numbers.  And who cares who is right, but I often wonder where analysts get their numbers from...so let's see if I have reason to wonder or not!
     
    Wii - 400,000 (250,000) -150,000
    PS2 - 250,000 (270,000) +20,000
    DS - 250,000 (300,000) +50,000
    Xbox 360 - 250,000 (210,000) -40,000
    PSP - 210,000 (165,000) -45,000
    PS3 - 165,000 (125,000) -40,000
    GBA - 165,000 (125,000) -40,000
     
    Reasons for the Wii drop? Well, I think supply of the console in March was especially low.  The lack of Wii availability could turn to Microsoft's favor as I think the 250,000 360 numbers are within reach, potentially the 360 will outsell the Wii in March.  It's a small victory, but the media and fanboys will enjoy it immensly. 
    I'm really perplexed by the PSP numbers.  Either I'm really underestimating its sell-through or the analyst is.  Same with the GBA, I think that ship has sailed and you'll soon see large drops in sales in the GBA. I would put a higher number for the DS, but I fear it has been hardware constrained like the Wii.

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