Couple things to note...September was a 5 week month for the numbers in 2006, which impacted September/October numbers a bit (analysts were of course not thinking about this when they made their October 2006 predictions, but I digress). Most interestingly, perhaps, is that Xbox 360 hasn't burst out yet. It is doing better in the media than in reality (which brings to mind the extreme media interest in the PSP of a year ago...it was supposedly THE cool device for Christmas and the clear choice against the DS, which has dominated it in sales for some time now). I expect a big Christmas for the 360, but I don't think it will sell more than 2 million units in the Christmas (Nov+Dec) numbers. I expect it will sell 1.5-1.75 million units for Christmas this year.

The best Christmas the original Xbox had was 1.75 million. The PS2's best Christmas was 4 million. The GCN's best Christmas was 1.9 million.

The Wii is expecting to have 2 million consoles available for Christmas. Notably, despite how 'small' the media has reported it to be, it's actually a very large number. The GCN never sold that many units for Christmas (and of course no console has launched with that many, so it's hard to gauge in comparison).

The DS sold 1.4 million last Christmas, the PSP 1.5 million, the GBA 2 million. Just for more comparisons.

Unless the Xbox 360 sells 3-4 million this Christmas I think it is unlikely it will build a lead over the PS3 that will last through January 08.