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    May 09

    Missing the market

    A recent quote at GameIndustry.biz.  The 'he' is Robbie Bach (president of Microsoft's entertainment and devices division)
    He also added that the Wii had received "more broad-base acclaim that I would have expected" and was "a very nice product, but it actually has a relatively specific audience and a fairly specific appeal." The challenge it presented to Microsoft was how to compete with it in the casual market, on both Xbox 360 and Windows, he said.
    Now the reason I mention it.
     
    I think Robbie has missed the mark.  The casual market isn't a small niche market.  The casual market is THE market.  Hardcore gamers are a niche market.  One that is not financially viable unless you own all of it.  If you look at the success of the Playstation and Playstation 2, they were not successful because they owned hardcore gamers.  Instead, they owned a portion of the hardcore, and most of the casual market.  The 360 is looking to be a hardcore's dream machine, but I don't think it will be profitable unless it reaches out to mainstream.  By branch out, I mean totally focus on the casual market.  Trying to through the bone to the casual market by making Viva Pinata won't do it when the 'big' game each month for 12 months is a first or third-person shooter.  What you end up with is a larger percentage of the ravenous shooter fans, but little else as you are alienating the casual market by trying to own the niche.
     
    "Fairly specific appeal." That is the description of niche and currently of the Xbox 360. More than anything else, that is what needs to be overcome in order for the machine to truly excel.  The way to do that? Embrace the casual market as THE market you want.
     
    April 19

    Survey Says - I Beat the Analyst

    So a few days ago I made my console/handheld March sales predictions after seeing Michael Pachter's and believing he was a bit off...how did it all pan out?  Well do you think I'd be writing if I had been beaten? ;)
     
    The closer of the two of us is in italics below. Michael did beat me on one of the seven, guessing the GBA numbers more closely than I did, so I have to give him his dues, but for the moment I'm feeling like I'm king :) .
     
    Wii
    Michael - 400,000
    Me - 250,000
    Reality - 259,000
     
    PS2
    Michael - 250,000
    Me - 270,000
    Reality - 280,000
     
    DS
    Michael - 250,000
    Me - 300,000
    Reality - 508,000
     
    XBox 360
    Michael - 250,000
    Me - 210,000
    Reality - 199,000
     
    PSP
    Michael - 210,000
    Me - 165,000
    Reality - 180,000
     
    PS3
    Michael - 165,000
    Me - 125,000
    Reality - 130,000
     
    GBA
    Michael - 165,000
    Me - 125,000
    Reality - 148,000
    April 13

    March Sales Prediction

    Just for fun (and because I think the analysts are way off) let's predict sales numbers for March.  I pinned the Xbox 360 Christmas numbers quite well (mine was 1.5-1.75 actually was 1.61) so who knows, I might get some of these right as well.
     
    Michael Pachter, a noted analyst has made his predictions on the March NPD sales numbers, I'll list mine below in () to the right of his, followed by the +/- difference between our numbers.  And who cares who is right, but I often wonder where analysts get their numbers from...so let's see if I have reason to wonder or not!
     
    Wii - 400,000 (250,000) -150,000
    PS2 - 250,000 (270,000) +20,000
    DS - 250,000 (300,000) +50,000
    Xbox 360 - 250,000 (210,000) -40,000
    PSP - 210,000 (165,000) -45,000
    PS3 - 165,000 (125,000) -40,000
    GBA - 165,000 (125,000) -40,000
     
    Reasons for the Wii drop? Well, I think supply of the console in March was especially low.  The lack of Wii availability could turn to Microsoft's favor as I think the 250,000 360 numbers are within reach, potentially the 360 will outsell the Wii in March.  It's a small victory, but the media and fanboys will enjoy it immensly. 
    I'm really perplexed by the PSP numbers.  Either I'm really underestimating its sell-through or the analyst is.  Same with the GBA, I think that ship has sailed and you'll soon see large drops in sales in the GBA. I would put a higher number for the DS, but I fear it has been hardware constrained like the Wii.
    November 10

    Xbox Year One Sales - an offical non-analyst report


     
    Xbox Xbox 360
    November 722177 326000
    December 699597 281441
    January 127939 249000
    February 139123 161000
    March 136388 192000
    April 78142 295381
    May 228914 220877
    June 264618 277000
    July 154204 206000
    August 137277 204000
    September 172748 259458
    October 239085 218000

     
    3,100,212 2,890,157

    Couple things to note...September was a 5 week month for the numbers in 2006, which impacted September/October numbers a bit (analysts were of course not thinking about this when they made their October 2006 predictions, but I digress). Most interestingly, perhaps, is that Xbox 360 hasn't burst out yet. It is doing better in the media than in reality (which brings to mind the extreme media interest in the PSP of a year ago...it was supposedly THE cool device for Christmas and the clear choice against the DS, which has dominated it in sales for some time now). I expect a big Christmas for the 360, but I don't think it will sell more than 2 million units in the Christmas (Nov+Dec) numbers. I expect it will sell 1.5-1.75 million units for Christmas this year.

    The best Christmas the original Xbox had was 1.75 million. The PS2's best Christmas was 4 million. The GCN's best Christmas was 1.9 million.

    The Wii is expecting to have 2 million consoles available for Christmas. Notably, despite how 'small' the media has reported it to be, it's actually a very large number. The GCN never sold that many units for Christmas (and of course no console has launched with that many, so it's hard to gauge in comparison).

    The DS sold 1.4 million last Christmas, the PSP 1.5 million, the GBA 2 million. Just for more comparisons.

    Unless the Xbox 360 sells 3-4 million this Christmas I think it is unlikely it will build a lead over the PS3 that will last through January 08.

    September 08

    Sales to Date in the US

    Just for fun I thought I'd post the sales to date for each of the console game system in the US. 
     
    These numbers are representative of November 2005 to date in the United States.  So really you are looking at Xbox 360 launch to date numbers for all console systems.
     
    #sold - Console
    4,128,611 - PS2
    3,464,357 - DS
    3,425,334 - GBA
    2,858,097 - PSP
    2,412,699 - XBox 360
    1,281,491 - GameCube
    982,340 - Xbox
     
    and in a chart format, month by month (these are NPD sales numbers, which are representative of consoles sold, not shipped)
     

    Month

    PS2

    Xbox

    GCN

    X360

    GBA

    DS

    PSP

    November 2005 531000 197000 272000 326000 820000 370000 353000
    December 2005 1500000 415000 606423 281441 1213196 1070000 1120000
    January 2006 272000 89000 66000 249000 172000 158000 179000
    February 2006 299000 88000 67000 161000 190000 150000 170000
    March 2006 273000 83000 63000 192000 201000 184000 186000
    April 2006 206995 38987 38028 295381 169115 138427 162438
    May 2006 231616 26353 33040 220877 152023 145930 159659
    June 2006 312000 24000 51000 277000 189000 593000 221000
    July 2006 241000 12000 44000 206000 163000 377000 161000
    August 2006 262000 9000 41000 204000 156000 278000 146000
    Totals 4,128,611 982,340 1,281,491 2,412,699 3,425,334 3,464,357 2,858,097

    I think the numbers are interesting for a number of reasons, but for the most part they only tell a piece of the story.  For example, the software sales for the PSP tell a different story of its relationship to the DS.  The software for the Xbox 360 has also been quite strong, though the margin of the PS2 software dominance is huge due to install base.  Still the software sales for the Xbox 360 is quite encouraging.

    August 28

    Critics ruined video games

    I was watching 'Finding Neverland' the other night and was struck by a line that Dustin Hoffman, who is the theatre owner said to Johnny Deep, who is the playwright.  He said  "You know what happened, James, they changed it." to which a bewildered Johnny Deep (James) responds "They changed what?" Dustin Hoffman's character continues "The critics, they made it important... hm, what's it called? What's it called?" and James says "Play" to which Dustin responds "Play."  The point here is that plays were entertainment, simple fun until the critics stepped in and made them to be art, culture, society and seriousness. 
     
    Thinking about the scene I think the same could be said of the game industry.  Maybe the critics didn't ruin it, but certainly games are supposed to be fun, but many of them have turned into rough attitude.  I don't see smiles on the faces of many of the players.  Instead I see rage, anger and intense emotion.  What are they called?  Games.
    July 12

    Sports give no love to the DS

    I've watched with fascinated eyes as sport games have completely ignored the DS.  As the DS approaches 20 million units (meaning that there are more DSes out there than GameCubes) I've been watching carefully for sport games and have continually been surprised by what I see. 
     
    Consider:
    • There are no basketball games on the DS...despite the popularity of the system, no-one has seen fit to bring B-ball to the court...yet.  Thankfully Square/Enix will be correcting that issue by released Mario Hoops 3-on-3, but why NBA Live is not on the system is a mystery to me.
    • There are no Hockey games on the system.  I realize Hockey isn't as popular as other sports, but still...the Game Cube has like 4 hockey games for a smaller fanbase.
    • There are 3 soccer games on the system going on 4.  I just can't figure this one out.  It's the total paradime shift.  Either people want sports on the system or they don't.  Even world cup craze doesn't call for 4 soccer games on the system.  3 of them by EA?
    • There are no baseball games on the system.  Given the love for baseball in Japan, I'm really surprised by this one.  I would think it would be easy to bring one of the less graphically intensive series, like the Pro series, to the system without too much trouble.
    • Football is well covered with 2 (soon to be 3) poorly done Madden games.  Why they don't let you draw your own plays is beyond me, but I think it shows the quality of people working on the games.  If EA would stop outsourcing each game to low-quality studios more people would buy the games.
    • Golf has two games, Tiger Woods, which was outsourced to a low-quality studio and is medicore at best, and Nintendo's touch golf, which is interesting, but not deep.
    • Tennis has one game, but let's pretend it doesn't...another badly outsourced game.

    So there are two issues here...

    1. The LACK of sport games on the system...no baseball? no basketball? no hockey?  With how many units the system has sold it's surprising the lack of sports available on the system.
    2. The LACK of QUALITY sport games on the system.  I really wish more 3RD party companies put more money into their DS games.  Clearly EA spends much more money on their PSP titles than their DS titles.  That perpetuates the cycle of 3RD party games selling poorly on Nintendo platforms.

    I'm a big fan of Sport games...and of my DS...I would love see the two come together with beautiful music.  For now that remains only a wish.

    June 16

    Why Meteos rocks!

    With the DS Lite release I've had several people asking me what game to get with their Nintendo DS.  This just happens to have occured while I've been busy playing my own DS and have once again fallen into a trance around one of my favorite DS Games: Meteos.
     
    Meteos is a puzzle game, which typically would be enough to make me stop reading and never consider buying it.  However, while the basic play is done by matching 3 of a color, the fact is that match 3 is just the first step.  After creating a match of there either horizontally or vertically the blocks blast off towards the top of the screen.  Gravity will start bringing them back to the bottom as will new blocks that are falling down from the top of the screen unless you create further matches, thus creating more thrust to blast the pieces off of the screen.
     
    The game is played at a frantic pace with peices continually falling and the player needing to consider how to make matches as pieces fall back as well as focusing on the stacks of pieces that are stationary (ensuring they don't reach the top of the screen and end the game).
     
    Honestly the most difficult part of this game is coming to grips with strategy.  It took me an hour before I totally fell in love with the game.  Before that I had thought it was fun, but at an hour when I started realizing the goal was really to have the ENTIRE screen connected in matches and launching towards the top is when I found it amazingly fun to play. 
     
    There are multiple modes in the game and unfortunately most people start with simple when they should start with Star Trip, a more rewarding mode that doesn't play to the death but instead to the planet Meteo where you can win the game and run through one of my favorite credit runs (you get to play as the credits roll and the music is just perfect as is the case throughout the game).
     
    Playing in star Trip you find that there are many planets, each with slightly different rules.  Gravity varies and you may find that you need to make 3 or 4 matches to launch the meteos.  As well some levels don't allow you to launch horizontal or perhaps vertical meteos, leading to a lot of different strategies.
     
    Each block you fire off the screen is counted.  Large numbers of different types of blocks can then be used in the fusion part of the game to unlock new levels, new sound tracks and tons of super cool power-ups that will then start appearing in game to keep it fresh.
     
    It's a brilliant game that you should definitely pick up if you have a DS.  After Tetris came out I was playing Tetris thinking something was missing.  I played Meteos and realized what it was.  Meteos is frankly a better game...and that is saying A LOT!
    June 02

    Japanese Sales Charts

    Increasingly the Japanese numbers are becoming a large number of units sold. 
     
    Last week I mused that two weeks in Japan might be able to show more hardware sales than the best selling system in America could muster in a month.
     
    This weeks numbers seem to indicate that a good week in Japan might outsell a month in the US all by itself.  This weeks numbers:
     
    May 22 - 28, 2006
    Nintendo DS Lite - 285,025
    PSP - 27,227
    PS2 - 19,798
    Game Boy Advance SP - 6,652
    Nintendo DS - 4,126
    Game Boy Micro - 2,013
    X360 - 1,242
    GameCube - 1,116
    Game Boy Advance - 44
    Xbox - 8
     
    289,000 DS's sold this week.  This week?  HOLY...
    That is an amazing number.  It is just 6 thousand off of the top selling console in America for all of last month.
     
    While Americans seem to be going for the 360 more after the PS3 price release (we won't have any data until the end of the month) certainly Japan has not been following suit.  Still, in order to meet lofty sales goals, Microsoft is going to have to clear twice as many units in the US (approaching Japanese DS numbers.
     
    Software sales:
    May 22 - 28, 2006
    1. 899,518 - New Super Mario Bros. (DS)
    2. 86,451 - Brain Training 2 (DS)
    3. 62,616 - Brain Training (DS)
    4. 48,342 - Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy in Itadaki Street Portable (PSP)
    5. 46,809 - Tetris DS (DS)
    6. 42,127 - Kimi Kiss (PS2)
    7. 38,419 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 (PS2)
    8. 37,222 - English Training (DS)
    9. 36,610 - Animal Crossing: Wild World (DS)
    10. 32,742 - Powerful Pro Major League Baseball (PS2)
     
    And no, that's not a misprint.  The New SMB nearly sold a million copies...in a single week.  It had the strongest single day sales of any game ever in Japan.  Remember that Japan has been shrinking in the gaming industry for several years.  Here is a bet that this year will mark the beginning of the turn-around.  Certainly Nintendo seems to have the Japenese market pegged. 
    May 26

    Japanese Sales Charts

    May 15 - 21, 2006
    Nintendo DS Lite - 160,182
    PSP - 24,457
    PS2 - 20,633
    Nintendo DS - 16,867
    Game Boy Advance SP - 6,174
    Game Boy Micro - 2,245
    X360 - 1,403
    GameCube - 1,051
    Game Boy Advance - 25
    Xbox - 20
     
    DS went way up (~177,000), PSP went down.
    New Super Mario Bros DS will be on the charts next week.
     
    In the US...for the MONTH of April
    360 - 295,381
    PSP - 162,438
    NDS - 138,427
     
    What this means is that in one week in Japan, the DS sold more than the PSP or DS sold in all of April.  In two weeks it nearly equals or will beat (expecting next week's numbers to be stong) the 360 for the MONTH of April in the US.  The Japanese market is very relevent to any question due to volume.  There is a high volume of hardware selling in Japan currently (and has been for the last 6 months).
    May 25

    Words to remember...

    "We're already on track to hit 5.5 million consoles out there by the end of June, and we're going to have 10 million units in the hands of consumers before our competition is even on shelves." - Kim

     

    "at the end of next month [June] we'll have sold over five million Xbox 360 consoles, as we continue to ramp up production." - Moore

     

    Remember MS stating they would have 5.5 million (or 5 depending on your source) sold by the end of June.  Remember that they said they would have 10 million soldy by the time the competitors launch (probably early November).

     

    Remember that there 3.2 million consoles reported sold in the days before E3 (May 8th).

    November 22 > May 8 (5+ months) = ~640,000/month

    May 8 > November 22 (6+ months) = ~1,133,333/month

     

    I just want to point out that the expected sales numbers for the 360 are VERY ambitious.  In fact, they are quite unlikely.  Which is very interesting considering how they are being stated as though they are fact.  Perhaps more interesting, in order to reach 5 million by the end of June and meet that chart that shows the 360 sold faster than the iPod, they would need to sell 1.8 million in 7 weeks.  That is roughly 250,000/week. 

     

    So...what are the Sony/Nintendo projections (listed together b/c they have the same goal).  6 million by the end of March...

    November 22 > March 31 (4+ months) = ~1,500,000/month

     

    Suddenly the MS numbers, which had seemed unreasonable, and which are based on history, seem like a good bet. 

    My guess? 

    Nintendo and Sony responded with huge numbers b/c of Microsoft using unreasonable numbers.  These numbers are each a matter of a PR machine trying to make people believe something.  What do you believe?

     

    May 19

    Japanese Sales Charts

    May 8 - 14, 2006 (hardware)
    Nintendo DS Lite - 91,895
    PSP - 27,127
    PS2 - 21,138
    Game Boy Advance SP - 6,317
    Nintendo DS - 3,438
    Game Boy Micro - 2,628
    X360 - 1,355
    GameCube - 1,069
    Game Boy Advance - 40
    Xbox - 36
     
    Notably the original DS is known to be sold out in most all locations (and has been for the last 3 weeks).  The overall numbers are down across the board, which shouldn't be too surprising.  Japanese numbers week by week have been very high for hardware.  I think it would be interesting to show the overall hardware numbers from Japan from Jan-March showing how some of the weeks in Japan there was more hardware sold than there was during entire months in the US.  Of course the handheld market is where the numbers are strongest, and in Japan those numbers are holding the entire market afloat.
     
    Software sales:
    May 8 - 14, 2006
    1. 89,536 - Powerful Pro Major League Baseball (PS2)
    2. 69,673 - Tetris DS (DS)
    3. 55,043 - Brain Training 2 (DS)
    4. 50,568 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 (PS2)
    5. 38,090 - Brain Training (DS)
    6. 30,536 - Animal Crossing: Wild World (DS)
    7. 27,681 - English Training (DS)
    8. 17,072 - Pokemon Ranger: The Road to Diamond and Pearl (DS)
    9. 15,458 - Dragon Quest: Young Yangus' Mysterious Dungeon (PS2)
    10. 13,703 - Mother 3 (GBA)
     
    May 17

    Real numbers for real people

    Thanks to the great information provided by Games Sales Charts I've posted an image that shows financial data for the big three: Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo as well as many of the larger developers.  The information is always interesting to note, especially as you see exactly why Nintendo chugs along and would NEVER consider selling themselves to Microsoft.  The difference between the two companies is nearly $6 BILLION dollars in Nintendo's favor.  That number is certainly rather daunting.
     
    Sony has chugged along well, but the move to the PS3 is starting to show up in the numbers and it is likely to create negative numbers for the near future.
     
    Enjoy the image, it is full of worthwhile, concrete information that shows how the companies are really doing.
    May 09

    Japan Hardware and Software charts

    A bit late due to Golden Week in Japan...and showing the same trends.  There are 6 DS systems sold for every PSP.  There are nearly 15 PSP systems sold for every Xbox 360 (and 10 PS2s).
     
    April 24 - 30, 2006 - Hardware
    Nintendo DS Lite - 225,835
    Nintendo DS - 42,695
    PSP - 40,884
    PS2 - 29,837
    Game Boy Advance SP - 8,225
    Game Boy Micro - 5,034
    X360 - 2,845
    GameCube - 1,126
    Game Boy Advance - 69
    Xbox - 29
     
    Software top 10 is owned by the DS.  Tetris was released this week in Japan.
     
    April 24 - 30, 2006 - Software
    1. 460,549 - World Soccer Winning Eleven 10 (PS2)
    2. 218,099 - Tetris DS (DS)
    3. 94,231 - Brain Training 2 (DS)
    4. 74,783 - Brain Training (DS)
    5. 56,860 - Animal Crossing: Wild World (DS)
    6. 54,456 - Dragon Quest: Young Yangus' Mysterious Dungeon (PS2)
    7. 52,258 - English Training (DS)
    8. 50,923 - Mother 3 (GBA)
    9. 38,236 - Naruto: Saikyou Ninja Daikesshuu 4 (DS)
    10. 36,777 - Pokemon Ranger: The Road to Diamond and Pearl (DS)
    May 02

    The Cloning Innovation

    A common statement in regards to the game industry, and in-fact most industries, is that the 'me-too' approach is a poor strategy to becoming financially successful.  While that may be the case in mainstream gaming, the casual sphere seems to actually flow exactly opposite to the rule. 
     
    In casual games, following the leader often leads to rewards even larger than the leader reaped.  This is no-where better illustrated than in the phenomenon of cloning games where developers who follow spend much less to create their games, which are near replicas of the original, and find financial rewards similar to the leader. 
     
    For example, switching pieces to match 3 in a row may have started with Bejeweled, but the games Jewel Quest, 7 Wonders, Atlantis Quest and a large list of others have done little more than make slight modifications on the formula, creating sometimes MEGA-hits that provide substantial financial return for little investment into the game beyond new game art and minor variations on the original game's mechanic.
     
    'Newer' games that come out and are popular, such as Zuma, lead to a flood in the market of similarly styled games that are hard to tell apart.  While in this specific example Zuma does hold the premium position, the typical market analyst would suppose in their thoughts that the clones would in the end be losing money by chasing after the leader, but this hasn't been the case in casual games. 
     
    Perhaps deriving from the ease and low cost of making a clone, as well as the public's apparent unawareness of what is a clone and what is the original, clones are wildly successful. 
     
    The push towards clones is aided by the majority of new concepts not being readily accepted by the market and yielding a lower amount of financial success than reusing the same play mechanic from an existing popular game.  Hence Cake Mania, a modification on Diner Dash is a much safer bet financially than Plantasia or Spacebound.
     
    While innovation is a current buzz-word thrown around the gaming industry, casual games have ignored the word focusing instead on 'polish' or the game's visual and visceral quality as well as supposed 'fun' in trying to appeal to its market.  Certainly non-innovative or hacks would be as reasonable an explanation for the derivative nature of casual games as fun is, but as adding innovation to a game seems to have little impact on its financial success there can be little impetus for being inventive.  Taken as a whole, it creates an interesting phenomenon where Casual games are eschewing innovation and following the typically disastrous 'me-too' strategy with amazingly strong financial results.  
    April 28

    I thought the point was to make money?

    Consider it a built-in rebate.  Microsoft wants you to play the Xbox 360 so badly they are paying you to do so.  Every Xbox and every Xbox 360 is sold at a loss.  The difference is a gift that Microsoft gives to you in hopes that you'll buy their console.
     
    Of course Microsoft is not alone in this approach.  The PS3 is expected to have a larger per system loss than the 360.  Sony may lose as much as 2x what Microsoft is losing per console.  The PSP is in a similar situation and both the PS2 and GameCube were initially sold at loses until technology caught up.  (Microsoft's technology deal on the first Xbox is notoriously known for being one of the worst out there...a mistake they quickly fixed with the new system, but it will be years before costs of manufacturing make the 360 or PS3 profitable selling systems)
     
    Of course the way this is all made up is in software sales.  You can lose money on each console b/c EVERY manufacturer has to pay you to put their game on your console, AND if you have any decent games of your own you can make serious bank.
     
    Microsoft released its results yesterday and the news was as expected.  The Home Products Division lost $388 million dollars.  Sony's numbers seem much better at plus $87 million, but the projection of the PS3 putting the division $870 million in the red doesn't make any investors happy.  Meanwhile Nintendo had its most profitable year since 2001.
     
    Why does Microsoft continue to lose money?  Because they want to control your living room is the most common answer you'll hear.  Many people are convinced that by getting you to purchase an Xbox 360 you'll then have a computer connected to your TV and Bill will have you under his power.  While that's an interesting thought, the argument lacks very much punch.  Connecting your computer to your TV actually helps out a host of technology and media companies.  Microsoft is pretty far down the list.  In fact, since MOST of Microsoft's financials are garnered from sales of its operating system, trying to get you to move away from your normal computer is a bad choice.  Not to mention that game consoles are sold to a small portion of the overall market.  Even if you doubled it you wouldn't have 1/20th the number of computer owners. 
     
    No, Microsoft is after the gamer.  Video Games is a big market.  It's a geeky market.  It's exactly where Microsoft wants to fit in.  Sony truly does want to make blueray the standard DVD for everyone rolling forward.  They really have a secondary agenda that is driving their primary agenda of video games.  They are risking their company's future on it succeeding. 
     
    Microsoft wants you to play their system and give them money for doing it.  For all those who think that MS is happy with being consistently in the Red on the Xbox you need to pay more attention to the numbers.  Xbox is pulling down Microsoft as a company currently and that will need to change in order for the company to stay in video games long-term.  As much as they want to be involved, and as much money as they have, they have never accepted being second and have pulled out of every business where they finish second.  Microsoft Networking anyone?  Sidewinder joysticks?  How about liquid motion an early competitor for flash?
     
    The good news for MS is that they now have their distribution problems figured out!  In the next 6 months we'll have a good idea of how many people are waiting to buy a 360.  My guess is that MS has some more tricks up their sleeve, perhaps even surrounding HD DVD (free upgrades?  selling at a horrible loss?).  It will definitely be interesting to see if Microsoft can shake off the 6 year cash drain of the Xbox line and turn it around.
    April 26

    Xbox, you know, for juvenilles

    WOW!
     
    As we keep hearing how MS is trying to make the Xbox the hub for the whole family there is still this problem of ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS.
     
    The current Verizon free weekend features an image of Joanna Dark's hind quarters with her twisting towards the viewer and stating one of the following:
    • Don't keep me waiting
    • I'm free all week
    • You got a week. Come get some.
    • Don't arrive early.
    • Are you ready to play?
    • I'm game. Are you?
    • You want a piece of me?
    • Hope your couch is comfortable
    • Hey, you got me all week
    • I'll be there. Will you?

    Who again is the Xbox 360 for?  Oh that's right, the typical testosterone screaming male who never could get his mind past 17.  Little boys enjoy!  For the rest of us, this is one of the worst campaigns ever.  When you appeal to the lowest common denominator that is what you'll get.  Thanks MS for taking away any interest I currently had in being among the Xbox 360 owners.  I mean, just consider the company I'd be keeping!

    April 21

    Japanese Sales charts April 10 - 16, 2006

    Hardware: April 10 - 16, 2006
    Nintendo DS Lite - 140,969
    Nintendo DS - 37,204
    PS2 - 27,549
    PSP - 26,340
    Game Boy Advance SP - 6,372
    Game Boy Micro - 3,676
    X360 - 1,926
    GameCube - 1,080
    Game Boy Advance - 46
    Xbox - 30
     
    Software: April 10 - 16, 2006
    1. 70,984 - Brain Training 2 (DS)
    2. 51,931 - Brain Training (DS)
    3. 49,168 - Animal Crossing: Wild World (DS)
    4. 47,971 - Legend of Starfy 4 (DS)
    5. 43,601 - Guilty Gear XX Slash (PS2)
    6. 43,365 - English Training (DS)
    7. 38,030 - Pokemon Ranger: The Road to Diamond and Pearl (DS)
    8. 24,694 - Final Fantasy XII (PS2)
    9. 20,959 - Pro Baseball Netsu Star 2006 (PS2)
    10. 20,604 - Pro Baseball Spirits 3 (PS2)
     
    Unless you are watching the Xbox 360 bleed to death or the PSP getting pwned there isn't anything to see here.
    April 14

    Japan Hardware Sales April 3-9, 2006

    April 3 - 9, 2006
    Nintendo DS Lite - 154,731
    Nintendo DS - 49,825
    PSP - 30,565
    PS2 - 28,896
    Game Boy Advance SP - 5,211
    Game Boy Micro - 3,103
    X360 - 1,940
    GameCube - 1,224
    Game Boy Advance - 110
    Xbox - 46

    Gross = Net? A lesson for video game media

    One of the more interesting things that I've read recently is how sales of actual units in the Video Game industry are up, but Revenue is slightly down or even.  This is blamed on portable sales as the reason more games are being sold is that more portable game sales are way up, but mentions the reports, they cost less for consumers to buy, thus putting the industry in a quandry.
     
    It amazes me to think that after years of schooling that our media has only learned how to report numbers in a way that makes them story-worthy.  It is unfortunate that putting forth good information in an insightful way doesn't seem to be all that important.
     
    In the last quarter we've seen several companies declaring larger losses than expected due to a lack of Xbox 360 systems available.  We've also seen a few companies, such as Nintendo seeing their most financially successful quarters ever.
     
    The reason for this is that the margin on a portable game is much larger than on a console game.  Console games require larger studios and longer time periods in order to compete.  Portable games, especially if they are not being released on te PSP, take less time and smaller studios.  They cost less to make.  Though they sell for less money at $30-$40, the margins are much greater.
     
    Thus while the media is reporting lower or flat revenue with increased sales the reality is they are looking only at the simple numbers.  They are looking at GROSS revenue.  Gross revenue is not the most telling number in this case as is often the case.  For example, Microsoft has had a fairly large gross revenue in their home electronics division for several years, yet they have been consistently losing money.  How much money you bring in is important, but if your expenses are higher, then your NET income is really a more important figure.
     
    While Microsoft has continued to state that it has come in second in the last generation and will now come in first in the current generation, a question of what that means must be first asked.  There is no question that Microsoft was 2nd in consoles sold in the current generation.  However, they were 3rd in terms of profit, being quite negative.  With the new system also selling at a large loss, it will be difficult to turn that around.  Sony is not fairing much better.
     
    There is an interesting chart here that shows that Nintendo's Net Income was 1/2 of Sony's for last year.  Not 1/2 of Sony's home electronic division, 1/2 of SONY's.  Including every single thing Sony makes (TVs, Computers, DVDs, etc), Nintendo made 1/2 as much money NET.  Nintendo's GROSS was 1/13 of SONY's.
     
    So what does it all mean?  It means that you need to carefully look at the numbers.  Video Games are doing better and worse than before...depending on how you are spending your money.  Selling consoles at a huge loss and investing in next generation games are both risky at the moment, but strategic planners are doing both with long-term visions.  I could talk about how those long-term visions are quite similar to the launch of the current generation, but I'll leave that for another day.